Area 1: Climate change, pollution and risks ( incl. water issues)

TEG 1.1: Understanding ecosystem dynamics and developing approaches to enable functional carrying capacity

CALL LINE 2
Sustainability of the ecosystem goods and services under changing climate and environmental pressures in Europe

Justification

According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment overexploitation of resources and rapid grow of human population led to degradation of almost two/thirds of ecosystem services, with special emphasis on water quality and supply and fisheries capture. It is expected that climate variation together with other environmental changes will lead to further transformation of ecosystem structure and therefore will cause further changes in services delivery. The trends and rates will depend on local and regional tendencies in economic development as well as current ecosystem state. Already handicapped ecosystem capacity is going to be even more jeopardized in the future, regarding that in many areas services have already fallen behind with renewing. Thus there is an urgent need to evaluate current state of ecosystems, which are crucial from the point of view of services used by human population, elaborate correct instruments to address local, regional and global pressures and develop models and scenarios enabling predictions related to impact on economic situation of regions and necessary policy adjustment. In these terms it is inevitable to foresee the subsequent steps in ecosystems transitions, identify suitable bio-indicators and indicators of socio-economic performance and elaborate decision support systems provisioning services under changing conditions.

General objectives:

• Identification of environmental and climate change pressures on socio-economy based on ecosystem goods and services provided in a catchment scale;
• Identification of differentiations considering the European regions of environmental and climate change pressures in different sectors (water sector, fishery, agriculture, forestry, urban development, land-use, spatial planning, biodiversity protection and conservation, etc.);
• Development and implementation of various socio-economic tools and indices to assess the effects of environmental and climate change pressures on socio-economy of catchments;
• Development of models of environmental and climate impacts on socio-economy of catchments and further assessment of gains and looses focusing on most vulnerable sectors.

Specific objectives from the perspective of the New Member States:

• Ensuring sustainable development of NMS and ACC under changing environment and climate, focussing on socio-economy in catchments based on available ecosystem goods and services;
• Development of adaptive policies towards ecosystems shifts and natural carrying capacity relevant to the changing environment and climate.

Background / state of art

Ecosystem services are strongly linked to ecosystem structure, functions and connectedness between terrestrial and water systems. Changes in climate and land use pattern targeted all three characteristics. They disturbed nutrient cycling at catchment scale, processes of soil formation and soil properties, and water retention, which all together were defined as supporting services. Through instability of biogeochemical processes and habitat characteristics they affected biodiversity and ecosystem production and in consequence food, fibre, timber production and water availability – provisioning services. Finally transformation of land cover (deforestation, intensification of agriculture), superimposed with exaggeration of weather extremes, resulted with increased frequency of stochastic events – floods, landslides, droughts, leading to degradation of ecosystems and triggering the positive feedback. It causes further destabilization of catchment processes and lowering of ecosystem adaptive capacity (handicap of regulatory services). Some of cause – effect relations have been already described and valuated with focus on economic and sociologic gains and losses. On the basis of existing knowledge, probabilistic scenarios were developed to reflect and quantify impact of environmental changes on regional development and allow risk assessment related to delivery of goods and services. The picture is, however, still incomplete because the mechanisms maintaining ecosystem stability are poorly known, and risk related to vulnerability of ecosystem components or ecosystems within catchments to future pressures is difficult to estimate. There is also lack of reference to past and present land use practices, their link to market conditions and feedback of both to state of natural resources and environment quality. All the more understanding of such a complex interactions requires trans-disciplinary, integrated approaches capable to describe dynamics of natural and anthropogenic components under conditions of increasing environmental variability. To properly address economic issues such an approach has to be developed on the basis of close trans-sectoral co-operation and tested through demonstrative case-studies capable to consider specificities of different regions and/or sectors in catchments’ socio-economy.

Ongoing and completed projects on issues raised

There are several ongoing or just finished projects at international, European, regional (Central and Eastern Europe) and national levels, which provides essential input to understanding of the link between ecosystem change and quality of goods and services which are provided to man:

• ALTER Net, FP6th Network of Excellence focus on identification of drivers and pressures of biodiversity change and its impact on ecosystem functions and services
• NATURNET-REDIME: New Education and Decision Support Model for Active Behaviour in Sustainable Development Based on Innovative Web Services and Qualitative Reasoning) 6th FP Project (Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania)
• Capacity for Climate Protection in Central and Eastern Europe - project conducted by The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe aimed at assistance of Central and Eastern Europe in reforming their policies and institutions to comply with International commitments, and responding to opportunities for infrastructure development created by the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
• TRANSCAT: System for decision support for integrated water management of transboundary river, case study of the Mesta River [EC 6th FP RTD]
• BIOFORUM: Conflicts between human activities and the conservation of biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, grasslands, forests, wetlands and uplands in Europe [EVK2-CT-1999-2006/ BIOFORUM-ACC, EU 5th FP RT]
• CABERNET (Concerted Action on Brownfield and Economic Regeneration Network) is the European Expert Network addressing the complex multi-stakeholder issues that are raised by brownfileld regeneration (Grmany, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia)
• Real - Life Scale Integrated Catchment Models for Supporting Water and Environmental Management Decisions. FP6
• HYDRATE, Hydrometeorological data resources and technologies for effective flash flood forecasting FP6
• Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems: from Regional Analysis to the European Scale (ACCELERATES) EVK2-CT-2000-00061, 2001-2003
• MULTI-sectoral, Integrated and Operational decision support system for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale (MULINO) EVK1-CT-2000-00082, 2001-2003

Priorities of FP7 and WSSTP SRA addressed by objectives:

The objectives of the call line 2 are related to Theme 6 of 7th Framework Programme – Environment. Climate change issues of the call line refers to Activity I – Climate Change, Pollution and Risks, priority 1- Pressures on environment and climate, sub-priority 5 - Climate Change Impacts and 6 - Response Strategies: Mitigation and Adaptation. With regard to understanding and management of environmental extremes, understanding of adaptive capacity of ecosystems and recovery processes the call line refers to priority 3 – Natural Hazards. Promoting development of tools and methodologies with focus on the most susceptible catchment components of both natural and man origin the call line addresses sub-priority 3 – Vulnerability assessment and societal impact and sub-priority 4 – Risk management and mitigation. Regarding the field of sustainable use and management of resources the call line 2 is closely linked to Activity II area – Sustainable Management of Resources, priority 1 – Conservation and sustainable management of natural and man – made resources.

Suggestion for most appropriate type of project:

• Collaborative Projects – possibly New Member and Associated Country focused, to address regional problems at relevant level
• Network of Excellence – to improve data and expertise sharing, capacity building, integration

Specific research highlights:

• Defining current state and future development of different ecosystems under different policies, focussing on adjustment to climate changes;
• Defining local ecosystem resilience for sustainable developments under climate changes;
• Identification of ecosystem state shifts and their reflections on sustainable provision of goods and services with regard to different historical backgrounds and management policies implemented in catchments’ socio-economy;
• Defining of possible reflection of changing environment and climate on sustainable market and transitions;
• Development of relevant instruments to address environmental & climate change pressures on socio-economy at local, regional & global scales;
• Identifying the impact of water sector, agriculture, forestry, fishery, etc. on ecosystem dynamics and carrying capacity under changing environmental & climate changes and extremes;

Existing expertise

• Ecology and ecohydrology
• Modelling of ground and surface water dynamics and soil processes
• Landscape ecology
• Soil hydrology
• Agrometeorology
• Limnology, hydrobiology
• Geology, pedology
• Climate dynamics, synoptic climatology
• Water management
• Bio-indication

Required expertise

• Sociology
• Economy
• Spatial planning and engineering
• Expertise covering sectoral issues
• Risk assessment and mitigation

Gaps in knowledge:

Lack of trans-sectoral co-operation in addressing environmental & climate changes and in development of relevant socio-economic policies in sectors based on ecosystem goods & services

Societal, economic and European relevance

The call line promotes research, which helps to define current state and future of different ecosystems under different policies implemented. It addresses, from point of view of sustainable development, important issues of ecosystem state shifts and their reflections on provision of goods and services and in consequence on the market at the local, regional and global scale. Special emphasis is put on countries under transition as they provide reference information for assessment of ecosystem state, play an important role in preservation of European biodiversity and at the same time undergo rapid economic changes driven by the market.
In order to proper addressing of socio-economic drivers of environmental change and possible problems related to socio-economic development and ecosystems services provision under climatic pressure, the call line supports the close co-operation and information exchange between scientists and representatives of crucial sectors - water sector, agriculture, forestry, fishery, etc.